I have refrained from any commentary up to now as there is little that I can say about the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan that would change any of the horror readily veiwed in the pictures on everyone's monitors and televisions. My prayers go out to the survivors of these events. The Japanese people have an enourmous task before them as they try to pick up the pieces and deal with recurrent aftershocks and several atomic plants that are nearing meltdown. Please donate to whatever charity that you trust, just because Japan is a wealthy country does not mean that these people are suffering any less.
My earlier comments on Black Swans were focused mostly on political events, items that were within the realm of man, the sort of things that we can have an impact on. Nature has an agenda all its own. Without thought or apology this little rock that we live on goes through its own schedule of events that we can neither control or predict, much less prevent or forestall. We are simply along for the ride.
Or, as my grandfather used to say; "Shit happens, sometimes it happens to you". I always took this as a sign of his Stoic side, not cruel or uncaring, just that it "...sometimes it happens to you" and there is no point in whining, complaining or protesting. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and get started with the rest of your life. There really is nothing you can do about what has happened, the only thing that you are in control of is how you respond.
In light of that point I think the Japanese people have responded heroically. No panic, no complaints I have yet to see mobs of people berating the world, wringing their hands and bitching that help isn't there yet. The fifty people that volunteered to return to the crippled reactor to try to shut it down knew they were signing their own death warrants, if not now then in the future as the effects of the radiation destroys them. A showing of true Samurai spirit, spitting in the face of death and going about their task. A task that no one could have blamed them for turning away from, or ordered them to undertake.
The sad fact is that the Government's response has been to little, too late (but, I did say it was the Government's response) and the Japanese nuke industry has a long history of problems. Blame aplenty will be doled out later I am sure. The most worrisome matter aside from the possibility of a meltdown is the slow and inadequate release of information by the officials of TEPCO and the Japanese Ministry. They seemed more concerned with "saving face" than the safety of their citizens. Not that I am suggesting that our Government would do any better at all (quite probably worse, come to think of it). Why is it that the government is more concerned about outbreaks of public disorder than they are about tens of thousands dying or becoming ill from radiation poisoning? Perhaps it is important to them that we die in an orderly manner, I just don't see it.
They underestimate the people by far. When word finally DID get out that things were far worse than reported earlier the citizens of Japan did not bust loose in an orgy of looting and violence. Instead they quietly and purposefully stepped up whatever preparations they could manage and made plans to move to safer locations as soon as possible, both of which would have been easier and more effective if they had been given quicker and clearer warnings.
This brings me to my first observation; always assume that things are far worse than the People In Charge are letting on. Government officials appear to be hopeless optimists when viewing a disaster, I have no use for them. My objective, first and foremost, is the continued safety and security of my family. I cannot afford to take risks based on the hopeful projections of someone who is motivated more by how they look on TV than they are by the future of my family. Look to see if their actions are in concordance with their words; are they at the scene? are their families anywhere nearby? have they bugged out to a safe location? Simply put; are they asking you to do something that they are not willing to do themselves? With politicians it is always best to remember that their actions are far more important than their words.
My second observation, as I sit surrounded by dozens of guns, tens of thousands of rounds of ammo, months worth of food and medicine and a stash of precious metals close to hand is this; there are some things that you just can't prepare for. If a twenty foot tall wall of water were to sweep through here all of my preparations would be gone in an instant (me as well). Hundreds of thousands of Japanese were going about their daily routine when the Earth itself went apeshit on them; the lucky survived, many perished, a few heroes tried to make a difference. When the unimaginable happens all you can do is to try to hang on so that as the dust settles you can try to be one of the lucky survivors, and, if you have it in you, maybe one of the heroes. Not that I am suggesting that you suspend preparation, most of the disasters that kill people are man-made and can be dealt with if you are properly equipped.
My third observation is that I have been looking at the world through the lens of man-made problems. I need to become more aware of the impact that Nature can have on my little corner of the world. Japan moved eight feet. The energy involved in that can only be expressed in scientific notation and is not comprehensible to the human mind. Go to your local garden center and try moving a rock that weighs as much as you do a distance of eight feet. Japan weigh tens of trillions of tons and it moved that far in an instant. I intend to look into what would happen in my neighborhood if anything near that occurred. For starters there is a NatGas storage field nearby, under hundreds of feet of clay cap they store millions of cubic feet of gas for use later, what are the odds of an unplanned release in the event of an earthquake? what is the dispersal ratio before ignition is no longer an issue? If you live near a gasworks or transformer plant what would happen to them if there was any significant tremors? Are they prepared? The Japanese thought they were. At the very least you could count on power, water, gas and communication being out for several weeks.
That is all for now.
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